Learning Value Investing: April 2011

Friday, April 29, 2011

Analyst's corner Bse Nse Stock

Maruti Suzuki & Indian Bank

MARUTI SUZUKI
Reco price: Rs 1,327
Target price: Rs 1,760
The March quarter was marked with a series of adjustments (depreciation, staff cost, other high expenses and a lower tax rate). Maruti Suzuki has maintained a demand outlook of 10-15 per cent for this financial year. There has been a drop in footfall conversion rate due to higher fuel cost and interest rates. At Rs 10,090 crore, net sales were in line with expectations, driven by strong volume growth and improvement in average realizations. Volumes grew by 19.5 per cent on-year to 343,420 units. ASP stood at Rs 287,221 (up 0.2 per cent on-year), driven by an improvement in product mix (higher contribution from SX4/Dzire segment). Net profits was due to a lower tax rate of 20.2 per cent. For financial year 2011-12, Emkay has lowered its Ebidta by 0.7 per cent, and upgraded its EPS estimates by 3.6 per cent to Rs 102.4, due to the lower tax rate. Maintain Accumulate.

— Emkay Research

INDIAN BANK
Reco price: Rs 247
Target price: Rs 269
Well below estimates, Indian Bank reported a net profit growth of 7.1 per cent on-year to Rs 439 crore for the March quarter, mainly on account of a higher-than-expected tax provisioning (effective tax rate of 43.5 per cent for the quarter).
Further, an improvement in asset quality was the key positive of the result. Net advances grew marginally 1.8 per cent on-quarter and 21.1 per cent on-year to Rs 75,250 crore. Deposits grew 4.7 per cent on-quarter and 19.9 per cent on-year to Rs 1,05,804 crore. Casa ratio stood at 30.9 per cent, down 116 basis points, as against 32 per cent in the December quarter. NIM was reported at 3.86 per cent, two basis points higher than the previous quarter. Non-interest income grew by 9.2 per cent on-quarter to Rs 272 crore. Asset quality improved, with gross and net NPAs declining. Maintain Accumulate

--Angel Broking

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Thursday, April 28, 2011

Todays Picks Bse Nse Stock

NIFTY
Current: 2,833 (April future: 5,836, May: 5,861),
Target: NA
Be prepared for a 150-point swing. There’s some downside bias and supports and resistances are at 50-point intervals between 5,700 and 5,950. An April 5,800p (13) and April 5,900c (8) together cost 21 with breakevens at 5,779; 5,921 for long strangle – this is a good single-session bet. A position trader can consider (all May options) long 6,100c (40), long 5,600p (49), short 5,400p (22), short 6,300c (12). This long-short strangle combo costs 55 and yields profits beyond 5,545; 6,155 until May 26.

BANKNIFTY
Current: 11,780 (April: 11,805, May: 11,862),
Target: 11,650
The carryover trend is positive and that could keep the Bank Nifty afloat. But the chart pattern is bearish. The Bank Nifty could swing through 11,650-11,900 today and traders may exploit that wide range. Go short in May futures with a stop-loss at 11,900. Increase the position between 11,775 and 11,825 and reset the stop to 11,850. Start booking profits below 11,675.

JP ASSOCIATES
Current Price: Rs 97,Target Price: Rs 94
The stock’s trending down on high volumes and there could be more bull unloading. Keep a stop at Rs 98.5 and go short. Increase the position between Rs 95 and Rs 96.5. Start booking profits below Rs 94.5. If the Rs 98.5 stop is broken, the stock could climb back till Rs 100.

WIPRO
Current Price: Rs 451,
Target Price: Rs 438
The stock’s on the cusp of a downside breakout after disappointing results. It could drop till Rs 435-439 if supports between Rs 449 and Rs 452 are broken. Keep a stop at Rs 455 and short. Increase the position between Rs 442 and Rs 445. Start booking profits below Rs 439.

RCOMM
Current Price: Rs 105,
Target Price: Rs 101
The stock broke a key support yesterday at Rs 105 and it could slide back till around Rs 100-101 levels today if selling pressure continues. Keep a stop at Rs 106.5 and short. Increase the position between Rs 102 and Rs 103.5 and reset the stop to Rs 105. Start booking profits below Rs 101. If the Rs 106.5 stop is broken, the stock could move back till Rs 109-110.

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Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Today's picks Bse Nse Stock

Bharti Airtel, Reliance Industries, Tata Steel, Tata Motors & GMR Infra

BHARTI AIRTEL
Current Price: Rs 382,
Target Price: Rs 392
The stock closed strong and it could reach for a potential target of Rs 392-393 inside the settlement. Keep a stop at Rs 377 and go long. Add to the position between Rs 386 and Rs 388. Book profits above Rs 392. If the Rs 377 stop is broken, the stock could slide till Rs 372. So there is a potential short with a stop-loss at Rs 381.

RELIANCE INDUSTRIES
Current Price: Rs 1,001,
Target Price: Rs 970
The stock has seen heavy selling pressure and it could continue. It has some support between Rs 990 and Rs 1,000 but if that is broken, a drop till Rs 970 is possible. Keep a stop Rs 1,015 and go short. Increase the position between Rs 985 and Rs 990 and reset the stop to Rs 995. Start booking profits at Rs 970.

TATA STEEL
Current Price: Rs 629
Target Price: Rs 600

The stock could be interestingly poised with the potential to move till either Rs 665 or Rs 570 if there’s a breakout by the settlement. The third and most likely possibility is range-trading between Rs 600 and Rs 640. Keep a stop at Rs 640 and go short. Add to the position between Rs 610 and Rs 615. Start booking profits at Rs 600.

TATA MOTORS
Current Price: Rs 1,261,
Target Price: Rs 1,230

If the stock climbs past Rs 1,270, it could have a target of Rs 1,300. If it fails to break resistance at Rs 1,265-1,270, it could fall back till the Rs 1,230 mark. Tentatively keep a stop at Rs 1,270 and short. Add to the position between Rs 1,245 and Rs 1,255 and reset the stop to Rs 1,260.

Book profits at Rs 1,230. If Rs 1,270 is broken, go long with a target of Rs 1,300 and stop-loss at Rs 1,260.

GMR INFRA
Current Price: Rs 38.4,
Target Price: Rs 34.5
The stock is testing a key support at Rs 37. If that is broken, it could drop till around Rs 34.5. Keep a stop at Rs 39.5 and go short. Add to the position between Rs 36 and Rs 37. Start booking profits below Rs 35. If the Rs 39.5 stop-loss is broken, a recovery till Rs 41 is possible.

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Tuesday, April 26, 2011

Analyst corner Bse Nse Stock

Hindustan Zinc
Reco Price: Rs 152,
Target Price: Rs 155
Hindustan Zinc’s (HZL) topline of Rs 3,230 crore was 23.1 per cent higher on a q-o-q basis and above IIFL expectations. The outperformance was due to higher silver content in lead concentrate sales. The company achieved its highest ever mined metal output at 231,039 tonnes, four per cent higher on a q-o-q basis. The jump in mined output was due to higher contribution from the stream IV concentrator at Rampura Agucha. Operating margin for the quarter expanded 350 basis points q-o-q due to higher product realisations and concentrate sales. Input costs (coke and coal) per tonne increased on a q-o-q basis. Net zinc metal cost without royalty, during the quarter was $784/tonne, a decrease of one per cent qoq. Net profit of Rs1770 crore was higher than estimates due to lower tax rate and higher than expected other income. Other income during the quarter jumped 46.1 per cent qoq to Rs 300 crore. IIFL has lowered its volume growth estimate for FY12 on account of the delay in the commissioning of the 0.1mtpa lead smelter. It expects HZL to witness earnings CAGR of 16.1 per cent over FY10-13E. Maintain Market Performer.

—IIFL

MindTree
Reco price: Rs 391
Target price: Rs 400
Mindtree reported in-line revenue growth of 1.7 per cent q-o-q to Rs 391 crore due to volume growth of two per cent q-o-q. Ebitda margin at 11.2 per cent was lower than expectation. High forex gain led to EPS of Rs7.8 (five per cent q-o-q growth). In dollar terms, IT services grew 5.4 per cent, PE Services grew 1.7 per cent and NIW declined 57 per cent due to loss of revenue. Overall pricing declined 0.3 per cent. Overall Ebitda margin declined 40 basis points to 11.2 per cent, despite rupee depreciation and absence of product business’ restructuring cost of $3.2 million in Q3FY11. Europe grew 14.2 per cent whereas US grew just 0.5 per cent, a similar performance compared to Q3FY11. Rest of world declined 22 per cent due to Kyocera revenue loss of $2.5 million. Manufacturing led the performance with 7.2 per cent growth. The attrition rate continues to be high at 25.1 per cent (90bps increase). Utilisation rate (incl. trainees) increased 160bps to 70.9 per cent. The loss of revenue from Kyocera will pull down the business volumes for 2011-12. The revenue growth in IT services is likely to be good but margin pose concern. Maintain Hold.

—Pinc Research

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Friday, April 22, 2011

Analysts' corner Bse Nse Stock

IDBI Bank, Sunteck Realty & Persistent Systems

IDBI BANK
Reco: Rs 150,
Target: Rs 182
IDBI Banks Q4FY2011 net profit, which grew by 62 per cent year on year (YoY) to Rs 516 crore was above estimates. Profit growth was driven by a sharp reduction in the provisions and a 51 per cent sequential growth in the non-interest income (NII). However, NII growth was lower than estimated at 46 per cent YoY, mainly due to the contraction in the margin (down 18 basis points sequentially to 2.1 per cent). The gross non-performing assets (NPAs) declined to 1.76 per cent from 2.22 per cent in Q3FY2011, led by aggressive write-offs (Rs 449 crore in Q4FY2011). IDBI Bank’s advances grew 14 per cent and 8 per cent YoY, respectively. Going forward, the growth in its profits will be driven by an improvement in the margin and a reduction in the NPA provisions. Maintain buy.

— Sharekhan

SUNTECK REALTY
Reco: Rs 347,
Target: Rs 545
Sunteck’s Bandra Kurla Complex (BKC) projects have already sold units worth almost their total cost. Cash from the sales will fund any expansion plans. Owing to change in analysts valuation stance, they have cut their target price to Rs 545 from Rs 811. Analysts estimate the total BKC projects cost at Rs 1,700 crore. Management stance for higher pricing is likely to stretch sales till FY16. Also, Sunteck plans to acquire stake in a couple of large-ticket transactions. Better cash flows will largely depend on execution & sales strategy. Maintain buy.

— Anand Rathi Research

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PERSISTENT SYSTEMS
Reco: Rs 392,
Target: Rs 480
Persistent came up with an organic 8.8 per cent QoQ revenue growth with a topline growth of 9.2 per cent (including the Infospectrum acquisition). The dip in the Ebitda margin was led by wage hikes effected in January, the slight dip in utilisation, increased investment in sales and marketing (50bps impact) and the one off provision for doubtful debt (margin impact of 50bps QoQ). This quarter saw IP revenue increase to 10.3 per cent of revenue from 7.5 per cent last quarter. While IP revenue is lumpy on a qoq basis, the management expects it to at least sustain at current levels in FY12. A pricing increase of 2 to 3 per cent is baked, which analysts believe is very achievable. Maintain buy.

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Thursday, April 21, 2011

Analysts' corner Bse Nse Stock

Godrej Properties, DCB, Dabur & Navneet Publications

GODREJ PROPERTIES
Reco: NA,
Target: Rs 686
Almost 77 per cent of Godrej Properties ‘s (GPL) land bank of 84msf (saleable area of ~50msf) comprises of joint development (JDA) projects, which allows it to enjoy a low risk, low capital intensive business model, with superior RoE. Analysts expect GPL to enjoy a premium valuation to due its strong growth visibility, assetlight model and pan-India brand equity. Going forward, the key catalysts which could further re-rate GPL are (i) traction on disclosed MoUs, (ii) visibility on development of other group land bank (particularly at Vikhroli), and (iii) continued momentum on new third-party JDAs. Neutral.

— Motilal Oswal Securities

DEVELOPMENT CREDIT BANK
Reco: Rs 59,
Target: Rs 72
Development Credit Bank ‘s (DCB) FY11 results prove that its turnaround strategies have been effective with the bank declaring a net profit of Rs 21.4 crore as compared to a loss of Rs 78.5 crore in FY10. The core business performance strengthened with NII surging 34 per cent YoY to Rs 189 crore as advances and deposits grew 23 per cent YoY and 17 per cent YoY to Rs 4,271 crore and Rs 5651 crore, respectively. Analysts expect a 24 per cent CAGR in business and lower credit costs to boost NII and net profit by a CAGR of 24 per cent and 87 per cent, respectively, over FY11-13E. Maintain hold.

— ICICI Direct


DABUR
Reco: Rs 103,
Target: NA
Dabur is entering into the hand sanitizer market under 'Fem Care' brand. The instant hand sanitization market is still at a nascent stage in India and is estimated to be Rs 20 crore. Dabur will compete with Reckitt Benckiser, Hindustan Unilever, Apollo Pharmacy and Godrej Consumer’s Protekt and expects a double digit market share in the hand sanitizer market within next three years. The product is available as 'Fem Safe Handz' with two variants priced at Rs 49 for 50 ml and Rs 89 for 100 ml. Analysts believe it is a good time to play the health and hygiene positioning. Fem portfolio grew 14.3 per cent in 9mFY11 with growth in Fem bleaches at 18.1 per cent. Dabur is happy with the relaunch and expects a sustainable growth rate of 15-20 per cent in coming years. Newly launched Gold bleach has been a success. Maintain buy.

— Edelweiss Securities

NAVNEET PUBLICATIONS
RECO: Rs 60,
Target: Rs 68
Navneet Publications India currently enjoys 60 per cent market share in Gujarat & Maharashtra under Publishing Segment (Schools).Company is poised to maintain & further enhance its leadership status on the strength of its quality content, experienced writers & long standing relations with schools. Expected syllabus changes in Gujarat and Maharashtra in coming years will further drive the growth. It plans to further leverage its strong distribution network to market its Stationery products. Navneet forayed into e-learning two years ago through its subsidiary eSense. The potential to grow Revenues & Margins are immense in this segment & can easily grow bigger than its Publishing business over the coming few years. Initiate coverage with accumulate.

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Wednesday, April 20, 2011

Today's picks Bse Nse Stock

Airtel, ONGC, Infosys, ICICI & Hero Honda

AIRTEL
Current Price: Rs 376.5,
Target Price: Rs 390
The stock is testing resistance at the top end of a range of Rs 365-380. If it crosses Rs 380, it could go till Rs 390-392 inside three sessions. Keep a stop at Rs 372 and go long. Increase the position between Rs 380 and Rs 382 and reset the stop to Rs 378. Start booking profits above Rs 390. If the Rs 372 stop is broken, go short with a target of Rs 365 and a stop-loss at Rs 375.

ONGC
Current Price: Rs 289.5,
Target Price: Rs 300
The stock could test resistance at Rs 300-303 in the next three sessions. Keep a stop at Rs 285 and go long. Increase the position between Rs 292 and Rs 294 and reset the stop to Rs 290. Start booking profits above Rs 300. If the Rs 285 stop is broken, ONGC might slip to Rs 279-280 so consider going short.

INFOSYS
Current Price: Rs 2,885,
Target Price: Rs 2,835
The scrip is still looking bearish but it may be settling down, given a lot of support in the Rs 2,800-2,900 zone. However, the upside seems limited. There's resistance at Rs 2,950 and at Rs 3,000. Go short, with a stop-loss at Rs 2,920 and a target of Rs 2,835. Increase the position between Rs 2,865 and Rs 2,875. Start booking profits below Rs 2,840.

ICICI
Current Price: Rs 1,090,
Target Price: Rs 1,050
The scrip could see a downside till around Rs 1,040-1,050 if the current three session bearish streak continues. Keep a stop at Rs 1,105 and go short. Increase the position between Rs 1,060 and Rs 1,070 and reset the stop-loss till Rs 1,080. Start booking profits below Rs 1,050.

HERO HONDA
Current Price: Rs 1,767,
Target Price: Rs 1,690
The stock slid on high volumes and the next support is around Rs 1,680-1,700. It could hit that level this week. Keep a stop at Rs 1,785 and go short. Add to the position between Rs 1,740 and Rs 1,750 and reset the stop to Rs 1,760. Start booking profits below the Rs 1,700 levels

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Tuesday, April 19, 2011

Today's picks Bse Nse Stock

JP Associates, DLF, Hindalco, TCS & IDFC

JP ASSOCIATES
Current Price: Rs 96,
Target Price: Rs 92.5
The stock is seeing selling pressure and it could experience a pullback till Rs 92-93. Keep a stop at Rs 98 and go short. Increase the position between Rs 94.5 and Rs 95.5 and reset the stop till Rs 96. Start booking profits below Rs 93.

DLF
Current Price: Rs 234,
Target Price: Rs 221
The stock could either recover till around Rs 245-246 or drop till Rs 220-221. Keep a stop at Rs 240 and go short. Add to the short position between Rs 228 and Rs 231 and reset the stop-loss to Rs 234. Start booking profits below Rs 222. If Rs 240 is broken, go long with a stop-loss at Rs 237 and a target of Rs 245.

HINDALCO
Current Price: Rs 204,
Target Price: Rs 199
The stock has seen selling on expanded volume. If support at Rs 203 breaks, it could drop till Rs 198-199. Keep a stop at Rs 207 and go short. Increase the position between Rs 201 and Rs 202.5 and reset the stop till Rs 204. Start booking profits below Rs 200. If the Rs 207 stop is broken and stock rises past Rs 208, it could jump back till Rs 213.

TCS
Current Price: Rs 1,145,
Target Price: Rs 1,100
The stock could bounce back till Rs 1,210 or continue falling till it hits the next support at Rs 1,090-1,100. Keep a stop at Rs 1,167 and short. Add to the position between Rs 1,125 and Rs 1,140 and reset the stop loss till Rs 1,150. Start booking profits at Rs 1,100. If the Rs 1,167 stop is broken, go long with a target of Rs 1,210 and a stop-loss at Rs 1,150.

IDFC
Current Price: Rs 154,
Target Price: Rs 160
The stock could slide till Rs 149 or it could bounce back till around Rs 160. Keep a stop at Rs 152 and go long. Increase the position between Rs 157 and Rs 158 and reset the stop till Rs 154. Start booking profits above Rs 159.

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Thursday, April 14, 2011

Simple Downloadable Excel Sheet to GRADE Bse Nse Stocks

I would like to share a Downalodable Excel file to GRADE stock's ,or rather how would one come to a choosing the RIGHT VALUE pick from many stocks,This is in form of EXCEL sheet,Download from the BELOW URLS form MOOTLEY FOOL website.

The URLS are

1.http://www.fool.com/portfolios/RuleMaker/Data/RMEssentials.xls

2.http://www.fool.com/portfolios/RuleMaker/Data/RMRanker.xls

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Books To Help you in Stock Analysis

The Below listed books are really some good books for them who are new to investing or learn analysing stocks,i have read them and personally recomend to read the same,will be updating more later. Thanks

Analysts' corner Bse Nse Stock

JSW Steel & Essar Oil

JSW Steel
Reco Price: Rs 957,
Target Price: Rs 1,190
Analysts expect JSW Ispat to report Ebitda/t of $71/tonne in 2011-12 and $90/tonne in 2012-13. Shipments have commenced from Chilean iron ore mines. Analysts expect volumes of 0.8 mt in 2011-12 and 1 mt in 2012-13, potentially contributing $32 million and $30 million to 2011-12 and 2012-13 estimated Ebitda, respectively. JSW Steel has guided for $170-180/tonne of Ebitda in 2011-12 as a result of increased captive coke, iron ore beneficiation and reduced coke rate/hard coking coal proportion. The 3.2 mtpa expansion, which was expected to be completed by the end of March, is now likely to get over in May. Analysts retain their assumption for 2011-12 at 8.5 mt. Analysts like JSW Steel for its volume growth and low conversion cost. Maintain buy .

— Edelweiss Securities

Essar Oil
Reco Price: Rs 136,
Target Price: Rs 175
Essar Oil delivered a consecutive strong quarter of profits and growth in Q4 of 2010-11. Revenues increased 27 per cent yoy to Rs 13,400 crore, led by higher volumes sold and higher crude prices. GRMs for Q4 of 2010-11 were at $8.1 a barrel, compared to $5.2/barrel for the quarter a year ago, reflecting the improved refining environment, which helped raise Asian benchmarks. As a result, Ebitda margins were at 6.6 per cent (up 70 bps yoy). Net profit grew 78 per cent yoy to Rs 320 crore. The refinery expansion is going well, and is set for commissioning by Q3 2011-12, and the CBM asset at Raniganj is also set to deliver commercial production over the next quarter. Maintain outperformer.

— IDFC Institutional Securities

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Tuesday, April 12, 2011

Analysts' corner Bse Nse Stock

DB Corp, eClerx Services & REI Agro

DB CORP
Reco Price: Rs 250,
Target Price: Rs 315
DB Corp’s local advertisers’ business is growing at over 20 per cent and is expecting a similar robust growth going forward (both from same-store growth and through expansion). Proportionately, the ad spend allocation has also risen, they expect ad spend to further rise for the business. Jharkhand (JHK) market has experienced severe competition after the launch of Dainik Bhaskar. DB Corp, an eight-month-old entrant, is gaining its ground on the back of lucrative ad rates to advertisers and compelling content to readers. DB Corp’s aggressive pricing play has consistently rewarded the group. Dainik Bhaskar, within eight months of its launch, is already the largest circulated newspaper in Ranchi. Renewal of annual subscription of Ranchi edition would be a key factor to gauge for. Maintain buy.

— Pinc Research

ECLERX SERVICES
Reco Price: Rs 685,
Target Price: Rs 740
eClerx differs from other pure BPO players as eClerx’s work involves specialised domain knowledge and judgement-based processing, which are core to the clients’s business operations. The company believes that the proposed Dodd Frank bill would provide strong volume growth opportunities as all the transactions would be cleared through one central clearing agency. Company believes that it would be able to sustain margins in the low- to mid-30s range. Company is aiming to increase its onsite sales fleet to 40-plus (versus 26 as of Dec’2010 quarter). Maintain accumulate.

— Emkay Global Financial Services

REI AGRO
Current Price: Rs 27,
Intrinsic Value: Rs 38
CARE Equity Research assigns fundamental grade of 3 on 5 to REI Agro (RAL), indicating ‘Good Fundamentals’. The demand prospects for basmati rice is buoyant both in the domestic and international markets. Being amongst very few integrated and large producers of basmati rice, RAL is one of the most competitive players in the industry with vast distribution network and presence across various price segments. In line with the industry phenomenon, RAL has a long term operating cycle on account of its high inventory holding period. Nevertheless, the management has adopted various strategies to minimise its working capital requirements going forward.

— CARE Equity Researc

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Friday, April 8, 2011

Today's Bse Nse Stock picks

Nifty, ONGC, HDFC, Indian Hotels & TechM

Nifty
Current: 5,885,
Target: NA
A breakout from the current narrow range, should move at least 150-200 points (5,750/6,050) in either direction. Consider a strangle of long 5,700p (36) and long 6,100c (26) or a straddle of long 5,900c (95) and long 5,900p (96). Even a move till 5,800 or 6,000 will lead to profits in either case because one option premium will gain more sharply than the other will lose value.

ONGC
Current Price: Rs 292,
Target Price: Rs 303
The stock is oscillating between Rs 290 and Rs 305 and it’s slid towards the lower end of that zone. Keep a stop at Rs 290 and go long, assuming the range-trading will continue. Increase the position between Rs 296 and Rs 299 and book profits above Rs 303. If the Rs 290 stop is broken, go short with a stop at Rs 294 and a target of Rs 280.

HDFC
Current Price: Rs 716,
Target Price: Rs 735
HDFC is very interestingly poised at the very top of a current trading range of Rs 690-715. It could have an upside till Rs 735-740 if it breaks out. On the downside, there's a lot of support. Keep a stop at Rs 705 and go long. Add to the position between Rs 720-725. Start booking profits above Rs 735.

Indian Hotels
Current Price: Rs 92,
Target Price: Rs 99
The stock has made a breakout on high volumes. It has a lot of resistance around Rs 99-100 and it’s likely to find that tough to cross. It could also consolidate between Rs 88 and Rs 92 for a couple of sessions. Keep a stop at Rs 88 and go long with a five-session target of Rs 99-100. Increase the position between Rs 95 and Rs 97 and book profits above Rs 99.

TechM
Current Price: Rs 750,
Target Price: Rs 775
The stcok has seen reasonable volume expansion and its testing resistance near the current price. A breaskout could push it to Rs 776-780 On the downside, it could drop all the way to Rs 715. Keep a stop at Rs 735 and go long. Add to the position between Rs 760 and Rs 765 and book profits above Rs 775. If the Rs 735 stop is broken, a short may be taken with a target of Rs 715 and a stop at Rs 745.

The target price and projected movements given above are in terms of the next one trading session

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Thursday, April 7, 2011

Today's picks Bse Nse Stock

Cairn, IDFC, Hero Honda, NTPC & Wipro

Cairn
Current Price: Rs 349,
Target Price: Rs 335

The movement in the scrip is obviously news-based. However, strictly on technical grounds, the scrip could drop to Rs 335 before it stabilises. Keep a stop at Rs 355 and go short. Add to the position between Rs 340-345. Start booking profits below Rs 336.

IDFC
Current Price: Rs 165,
Target Price: Rs 172
The stock has been bouncing between Rs 162 and Rs 165 with a bullish bias. A breakout past Rs 167 would give it a target of Rs 172 in a three-session timeframe. Keep a stop at Rs 162 and go long. Increase the position between Rs 167 and Rs 169. Start booking profits above Rs 172.

Hero Honda
Current Price: Rs 1,682,
Target Price: Rs 1,715

The stock has made what seems like a temporary breakout. It could have an upside till around Rs 1,715. Keep a stop at Rs 1,660 and go long. Add to the position between Rs 1,690 and Rs 1,700. Start booking profits above Rs 1,710. If the Rs 1,660 stop is broken, the stock could drop back till Rs 1,640.

NTPC
Current Price: Rs 192,
Target Price: Rs 202

The stock is range-trading Rs 190-195 with a bullish bias. If it closes above Rs 196, it would have a target of Rs 202 in a three-session timeframe. Keep a stop at Rs 190 and go long. Increase the position between Rs 196 and Rs 198. Book profits above Rs 201. If it drops below Rs 189, consider a short witha target of Rs 184 and a stop-loss at Rs 191.

Wipro
Current Price: Rs 466,
Target Price: Rs 453

A fall to support at Rs 452-455 looks likely given the bearish trend. Keep a stop at Rs 472 and go short. Increase the position between Rs 458-462. Book profits below Rs 455. If the stop at Rs 472 is broken, consider reversing and going long with a target of Rs 480 and a stop at Rs 469.

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Wednesday, April 6, 2011

Analysts' corner Bse Nse Stock

Hindalco Industries, Sintex Industries & Akzo Noble

HINDALCO INDUSTRIES
Reco price: Rs 209
Target price: Rs 291
Hindalco has announced the successful financial closure for its upcoming 359-ktpa Mahan aluminium project and the associated 900-Mw power plant. The project costs Rs 10,500 crore and is likely to be completed by October 2011. However, we are assuming delays and expect it to be completed by March 2012. As on September 2010, Hindalco had spent Rs 2,300 crore. Additionally, Rs 4,000 crore, Rs 2,900 crore and Rs 500 crore are expected to be spent in FY11, FY12 and FY13, respectively (excluding financing cost). The company has committed 90 per cent of the total cost. The project would raise aluminium capacity by 60 per cent by the end of FY12. Aluminium prices stand at $2,600/t, higher than our FY12 estimate of $2,550/t, thereby posing upside risks to the same. Maintain Buy.

— Edelweiss Research

SINTEX INDUSTRIES
Reco Price: Rs 160
Target Price: Rs 220
Sintex is structurally a strong growth story. Key positives include 1) Diversified business model marked by low volatility in sales, profit and cash flows; 2) Market leadership in the prime Monolithic and Prefab segments which are expected to show CAGR of 25-27 per cent over FY11-13; 3) Acquired overseas and domestic subsidiaries have started delivering and are likely to show operational improvement; (4) Emerging cash flow positive in FY12-13 through better management — operational cashflow is likely to be Rs 590 crore and Rs 640 crore in FY12 and FY13, respectively, as against Rs 150 crore and Rs -260 crore in FY09 and FY10. At the target price, the stock looks attractive and discounts 12 times and 10.6 times the FY12 and FY13 estimated EPS of Rs 18.5 and Rs 20.7, respectively. Buy

— Pinc Research

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AKZO NOBLE
Reco Price: Rs 826
Target price: Rs 1,094
The company is coming up with two plants with capacities of 60,000 tonnes and 84,000 tonnes, respectively, at a total cost of Rs 383 crore. The surge in demand for its products and anticipation of huge demand for its paints encouraged it to come up with these projects. The company is expected to increase its manpower, which might double from the current level of 1,500. At a CMP of Rs 826, Akzo Nobel is currently trading at P/E of 16.3 times and 13.6 times the forward earnings of FY11E & FY12E, respectively. Its peer group companies are trading at a trailing P/E, greater than 25 times the earnings. Buy

Ashika Stock Broking

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Tuesday, April 5, 2011

Today's picks Bse Nse Stock

Reliance Ind, IDBI Bank, JP Associates, Reliance Comm & Hindalco

RELIANCE INDUSTRIES
Current Price: Rs 1,051,
Target Price: Rs 1,080
The stock continues to look somewhat bullish and it could test targets in the Rs 1,070-1,080 range, even if it cannot sustain prices in that zone of resistance. Keep a stop at Rs 1,035 and go long. Add to the position between Rs 1,060 and Rs 1,065 and reset the stop to Rs 1,055. Start booking profits above Rs 1,075.

IDBI BANK
Current Price: Rs 149,
Target Price: Rs 144
The stock is hitting strong resistance between Rs 149 and Rs 151 and it’s likely to fall back and consolidate around Rs 144-145 or lower. Keep a stop at Rs 151 and go short. Increase the position between Rs 146 and Rs 147.5. Start booking profits below Rs 145. If the market trend is weak, especially financials, there’s a three-session target of Rs 141.

JP ASSOCIATES
Current Price: Rs 98.5,
Target Price: Rs 102
The stock could run up till it hits resistance at Rs 103. It could also fall till Rs 94. Keep a stop at Rs 97 and go long. Increase the position between Rs 99.5 and Rs 101 and reset the stop to Rs 99. Book profits above Rs 102. If the Rs 97 stop is broken, reverse and go short with a target of Rs 94 and a stop at Rs 98.5.

RELIANCE COMM
Current Price: Rs 109,
Target Price: Rs 103
The stock hit strong resistance above Rs 112 and it’s likely to retrace till around Rs 103-104 and it could drop into double-digits if there’s panic about the scam. Keep a stop at Rs 111 and go short. Increase the position between Rs 105 and Rs 107 and reset the stop to Rs 108. Book profits below Rs 104.

HINDALCO
Current Price: Rs 216,
Target Price: Rs 223
In terms of an intermediate timeframe, the stock is range-trading between Rs 195 and Rs 225 and it could test the upper range in the next three sessions. Keep a stop at Rs 212 and go long. Increase the position between Rs 218 and Rs 220 and reset the stop to Rs 216. Book profits above Rs 222.

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Friday, April 1, 2011

Googles New Google MAIL--Google Motion

Dear Reader's,

I did like to share new MAIL services from Google.

The Link for the same is http://mail.google.com/mail/help/motion.html

Thanks.

Todays Bse Nse stock Picks

Today's picks
Nifty, BankNifty, ITC, Bajaj Auto & TCS

NIFTY
Current: 5,834,
Target: NA
The Nifty has resistance at 5,875 and support at 5,775. Breakouts in three sessions could go till 5,625/6,025. A bearspread with long 5,700p (73) and short 5,600p (50) covers a breakdown with a net cost of 23 and maximum theoretical gain of 77. A long Nifty future with a stop loss at 5,825 caters for an upmove.
My view is bearish.

BANKNIFTY
Current: 11,705,
Target: 11,525
The financial index reacted sharply after hitting resistance at 11900. It could have a downside till around the 11,400 levels in the next three sessions. Keep a stop at 11,825 and short. Add to the position between 11,600 and 11,650.

ITC
Current Price: Rs 182,
Target Price: Rs 189
Very high volume buying boosted the FMCG major and it looks like an upside breakout. It could test resistance at 185 – that is a minimum target. If it crosses 185, it may travel till 189. Keep a stop at 179 and go long. Add to the position between 185 and 186 and book profits above 188.

BAJAJ AUTO
Current Price: Rs 1,463,
Target Price: Rs 1,495
The stock has moved on very high-volumes even adjusting for settlement considerations. It has the potential to test resistance in the 1485-1500 zone. Keep a stop at 14,40 and go long. Add to the position between 1,475 and 1,480 and reset the stop loss till 1,465.
Start booking profits above 1,490.

TCS
Current Price: Rs 1,184,
Target Price: Rs 1,155
A pullback to the 1,150-1,160 zone is likely. The stock has very strong resistance between 1,185-1,200. Keep a stop at 1,195 and go short. Add to the position between 1,175 and 1,180 and reset the stop to 1185. Start booking profits below 1,160.

(The target price and projected movements given above are in terms of the next one trading session, unless otherwise stated)

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